#Eurovision 2019: Did the Cheap-and-Cheerful Qualification metric hold up?

In a recent article, we postulated:

What emerges quickly is that entries ranked in the top 5 of either the jury or televote rankings of their semi-final qualifies for that year’s Grand Final.

Well…we now have the full results from the semi-finals. Let’s see if the method held up.

Semi-final One

For this semi-final we suspected the following top fives:

  • Jury: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal
  • Televote: Greece, Australia, Serbia, Cyprus, Czech Republic

Thus, our aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal, Australia, Cyprus, Czech Republic (8 of 10 qualifiers). What were the actual top fives? Take a look:

Rank Country Televote
1  Iceland 151
2  Australia 140
3  Estonia 133
4  San Marino 124
5  Slovenia 93

2019 Semi-Final One Televote rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)

Rank Country Jury
1  Czech Republic 157
2  Greece 131
3  Australia 121
4  Cyprus 95
5  Serbia 91

2019 Semi-Final One Jury rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)

In other words, the actual aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal, Australia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, San Marino and Estonia.

The method worked; only, we had the lists wrong. And…had the Czechs and Slovenes and Greeks and Serbs and Cyprus on the wrong lists. *awkward*

Let’s move on…

Semi-final Two

For this semi-final we suspected the following top fives:

  • Jury: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden
  • Televote: Russia, Switzerland, Sweden, Malta, North Macedonia

And our aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Switzerland, Malta, North Macedonia (8 of 10 qualifiers). These were the actual top fives:

Rank Country Televote
1  Norway 170
2  Netherlands 140
3  Switzerland 137
4  Russia 124
5  Azerbaijan 121

2019 Semi-Final Two Televote rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)

Rank Country Jury
1  North Macedonia 155
2  Sweden 150
3  Netherlands 140
4  Malta 107
5  Azerbaijan 105

2019 Semi-Final Two Jury rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)

Again, the actual aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Switzerland, Malta, North Macedonia, and Norway. Again, Malta was on the wrong list and Sweden was only in the jury top 5.

Ça marche!

The method works! The only limitation is our ability to surmise the lists correctly! D’oh!

Leave a Reply