#Eurovision 2019: Did the Cheap-and-Cheerful Qualification metric hold up?
In a recent article, we postulated:
What emerges quickly is that entries ranked in the top 5 of either the jury or televote rankings of their semi-final qualifies for that year’s Grand Final.
Well…we now have the full results from the semi-finals. Let’s see if the method held up.
Semi-final One
For this semi-final we suspected the following top fives:
- Jury: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal
- Televote: Greece, Australia, Serbia, Cyprus, Czech Republic
Thus, our aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal, Australia, Cyprus, Czech Republic (8 of 10 qualifiers). What were the actual top fives? Take a look:
Rank | Country | Televote |
1 | Iceland | 151 |
2 | Australia | 140 |
3 | Estonia | 133 |
4 | San Marino | 124 |
5 | Slovenia | 93 |
2019 Semi-Final One Televote rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)
Rank | Country | Jury |
1 | Czech Republic | 157 |
2 | Greece | 131 |
3 | Australia | 121 |
4 | Cyprus | 95 |
5 | Serbia | 91 |
2019 Semi-Final One Jury rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)
In other words, the actual aggregate projected list of
qualifiers from this semi-final was: Slovenia, Serbia, Iceland, Greece, Portugal,
Australia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, San Marino and Estonia.
The method worked; only, we had the lists wrong. And…had the Czechs and Slovenes and Greeks and Serbs and Cyprus on the wrong lists. *awkward*
Let’s move on…
Semi-final Two
For this semi-final we suspected the following top fives:
- Jury: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden
- Televote: Russia, Switzerland, Sweden, Malta, North Macedonia
And our aggregate projected list of qualifiers from this semi-final was: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Switzerland, Malta, North Macedonia (8 of 10 qualifiers). These were the actual top fives:
Rank | Country | Televote |
1 | Norway | 170 |
2 | Netherlands | 140 |
3 | Switzerland | 137 |
4 | Russia | 124 |
5 | Azerbaijan | 121 |
2019 Semi-Final Two Televote rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)
Rank | Country | Jury |
1 | North Macedonia | 155 |
2 | Sweden | 150 |
3 | Netherlands | 140 |
4 | Malta | 107 |
5 | Azerbaijan | 105 |
2019 Semi-Final Two Jury rankings (Source: Eurovision.tv)
Again, the actual aggregate projected list of
qualifiers from this semi-final was: Azerbaijan, Russia, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden,
Switzerland, Malta, North Macedonia, and Norway. Again, Malta was on the
wrong list and Sweden was only in the jury top 5.
Ça marche!
The method works! The only limitation is our ability to surmise the lists correctly! D’oh!
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